Business sentiment in Asia is at an
all-time high with India the most upbeat, followed by the Philippines and
China, according to Grant Thornton International's new survey on business
optimism/pessimism that polled 7,200 leaders of private firms in 32 countries.
The survey found Asians the most confident in the world as they looked ahead to
the next 12 months. Asian countries took the top four spots on the list. The
indicator covers 81% global GDP. India was the most upbeat with 97% of the
respondents optimistic. The Philippines followed with 88%, China was third at
85% and Singapore fourth with 84%. Ireland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Hong
Kong, Sweden and Argentina filled the remaining top 10 spots with the global
average at 45%.
The National Council of Applied
Economic Research (NCAER) has revised its forecast for the country's gross
domestic product growth for 2006-07 to 8.44 per cent, from the 8.13 per cent
that it had forecasted in October last year. NCAER has also projected a lower
fiscal deficit of 3.63 per cent for the current fiscal, against its October
projection of 3.71 per cent. Further, It has projected a decline in the current
account deficit to 1.93 per cent, from the earlier forecast of 2.11 per cent for
2006-07.
The Reserve Bank's Industrial Outlook
Survey points to optimism on the growth outlook. The business expectations
index for October-December, 2006 was higher than in the preceding quarter but
marginally lower than in the corresponding quarter a year ago. The expectations
index for January-March, 2007 is higher than in the preceding quarter as also
in the corresponding quarter a year ago. A positive outlook for demand
conditions continues with increased optimism reflected in order books, production,
employment and profit margins. The assessment about growth of exports and
imports indicates a marginally lower level of confidence. Expectations of
increase in selling prices have moderated somewhat in relation to the preceding
quarter.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
has given India's economic policies a thumbs-up and has projected the gross
domestic product to grow at 8.2% in 2006-07. The Indian economy grew at 8.9%
and 9.2% in the April-June and July-September quarters, respectively. According
to the IMF, prospects looked good for a sustained and robust expansion of the
economy in the medium term. The IMF has estimated India's per capital real
income to double in 13 years if India grew at an estimated 7.5% a year. The
four main challenges, it said, were: achieving fiscal sustainability while
financing development, managing price and financial stability, fostering a
deeper and broader financial sector and promoting more job-intensive, inclusive
growth. According to the IMF robust economic growth is pushing Indian companies
to integrate with global economies. Growing corporate profits are funding
ambitious expansions abroad, which are aimed at achieving scale,
competitiveness, technology and access to market. According to the IMF, in the
first three quarters of 2006-07, Indian companies spent about $7.2 billion
buying overseas companies.
According to the global research firm
Credit Suisse, India is set to surpass China as the fastest-growing economy in
Asia this year on the back of increasing consumer demand and public investment
in infrastructure. In its December forecast, the firm upgraded India's economic
growth rate to 9.5 per cent in 2006 from 8.5 per cent projected in September
last year. Further, according to Credit Suisse the economy would grow by 10 per
cent in 2007 and 10.5 per cent rate in 2008.
India has gate-crashed into the list of
the top 20 wealth markets in the world. India and Russia - ranked 19 and 20,
respectively, in the Global Wealth 2006 list - are the latest entrants among Bric
(Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations to make it to the cut this year. The
report says that the BRIC countries are expected to grow nearly twice as fast
as the global average at 10.6% to touch $7.1 trillion and that India will show
the fastest growth at 13.3% to touch $1 trillion by 2010-end.
Exports grew by 39.5 per cent in dollar
terms during April-November, 2006 whereas the imports increased by 36.5 per
cent in April-November, 2006. Forex reserves (excluding Gold and SDRs) stood at
$170.19 billion at the end of December 2006. Rupee appreciated against US
Dollar and Japanese Yen and depreciated against Pound Sterling and Euro in
December 2006.
The annual inflation rate in terms of
WPI (Base 1993-94=100) was 5.58 per cent for the week ended December 30, 2006
as compared with 4.56 per cent a year ago. This rate was contributed by an
increase of 9.09 per cent in Primary Articles, 3.47 per cent increase in Fuel,
Power, Lights and Lubricants and 5.04 per cent increase in Manufactured
Products as against an increase of 5.13 per cent, 7.95 per cent and 3.05 per
cent respectively on the corresponding date of last year.
The number of foreign institutional
investors (FIIs) registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India
(SEBI) has crossed the 1,000 mark. The total number of FIIs having their
offices in India has now increased to 1,030. In the beginning of calendar year
2006, the figure was 813. As many as 217 new FIIs opened their offices in India
during the calendar year 2006. This is the highest number of registrations by
FIIs in a year till date. The previous highest was 209 in 2005.
Consumer
Market
According to a survey by AC Nielson,
Indians are the world's most optimistic consumers, followed by Norwegians and
Danes. While Japanese remain cautious despite their recovering economy, India
has set the highest level ever registered in the AC Nielsen Global Consumer
Confidence Index with a reading of 137, although Norway was not far behind at
134 and Denmark at 129. Indians, benefiting from a booming economy, have topped
the twice-yearly survey since it was introduced in early 2005. In contrast,
consumers in Asia's other surging economy, China, scored a much lower 105,
although that was above the global average reading of 99.
The consumer durables production index
recorded a robust increase of 15. 7 per cent in the first half of the fiscal
year 2006-07.between May and August 2006, the index grew in the range of
17.5-20 per cent. However, in September, it witnessed some deceleration as it
grew by 12.6 per cent. Of the 27 items, which constitute the consumer durables
index, production of 12 items went up by more than 20 per cent during the first
half of the fiscal 2007. This includes passenger cars, motorcycles, washing
machines, refrigerators, two-wheeler tyres and tractor tyres. Production of air
conditioners, however, declined. Growth in production of passenger cars
decelerated to 11 per cent in September 2006 after growing in the range of
22-27 per cent during the previous three months.
The number of telephone subscribers in
the country reached 189.93 million in December 2006, from 124 million in
December 2005, pushing the tele-density to 17.16 per cent from 11.43 per cent
in December 2005. Further, the number of broadband connections reached 2.10
million in December 2006.
Total number of phones registered with
TRAI stood at 183.5 million cumulatively for the April - November period of
2006. This record achievement in total phones registered could be ascribed to
additions in the mobile network every month. Overall teledensity reached 16.60
in November 2006 compared to 16 in the previous month of this year. In November
2006 wireless lines added 6.79 million phones. The landline phone ceased to
maintain the growth that existed a year ago.
The Automobile Industry registered a
total production of 8.2 million vehicles in April-December 2006 and witnessed a
production growth of 15.91 percent in April- December 2006 compared to April -
December 2005. During the calendar year 2006, the automobile industry has
registered a total production of 10.9 million vehicles in the period January to
December 2006 and witnessed a production growth of 16.22% over 2005.
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Agriculture
The agriculture ministry is likely to
spend an additional US$ 5.67 million (Rs 250 crore) in 2007-08 on farm
insurance, over and above the average US$ 147.3 million (Rs 650 crore) spent on
the National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS). The scheme, approved by the
finance ministry, is expected to be implemented in 100 pilot districts, based
primarily on the suggestions made by a joint expert group. It is likely to be
implemented mainly in dry land and drought-prone districts susceptible to farm
suicides. Once its performance is evaluated and found efficient, the government
plans to extend it to other non-drought-prone districts.
The Rs 490 crore Indian seed industry
is emerging as an important centre for seed production in the south-east Asian
region owing to the availability of a variety of crops growing in a varied
range of climatic conditions in the country. According to a Rabobank report,
the domestic seed industry has matured over the last couple of years with the
introduction and broad acceptance of technologically superior transgenic
hybrids of cotton crops.
According to the latest figures
available from different planting zones, the country's tea production in 11
months of 2006 increased by 29.8 million kg over the same period in 2005,
During January-November 2006, totally 909.1 million kg was produced against
879.3 million kg in 2005.
In April-December, 2006 India
registered a 59.3 per cent rise in onion exports at 884,137 from 555,144 tonne
in the same period in 2005. In value terms, April-December exports rose to US$
164.8 million (Rs 727 crore) from US$ 119.7 million (Rs 528 crore) in the 2005.
The export demand is high from Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and other neighbouring
countries due to adverse weather in these countries.
During the current year so far, equity
market activity recorded a significant increase in terms of issuances in the
domestic primary segment as well as in international stock exchanges. The BSE
Sensex (1978-79=100), which had risen from 11,280 in end-March, 2006 to 12,612
on May 10, 2006 before receding to 8,929 on June 14, 2006, was supported in
subsequent months by robust macroeconomic fundamentals and high private
corporate profitability. The Sensex rallied with intermittent corrections to
reach a high of 14,283 on January 25, 2007.
The bullish trend in the secondary
capital markets continued in December 2006 despite the FIIs turning into net
sellers (US$ 814.7 million) in Indian equities after a span of six months.
The market cap weighted COSPI posted
gains of 0.8 per cent, while the equally weighted COSPI yielded higher returns
of 6.4 per cent, implying that the smaller market cap scrips fared better than
the larger ones.
Mutual funds made net purchases of US$
368.85 (Rs. 1,627 crore) in Indian equities in December 2006, after remaining
net sellers for two consecutive months.
In November 2006, mutual funds launched
35 new schemes, which mobilized US$ 2.56 billion (Rs. 11, 277 crore). In
addition to that, US$ 39.88 billion (Rs. 1,75,890 crore) were garnered by the
existing schemes.
Driven by the pick-up in real activity,
credit extended by scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) increased by US$ 56.77
billion (16.6 per cent) during the current financial year up to January 5, 2007
as compared with the increase of US$ 44.79 billion (17.1 per cent) in the
corresponding period last year. The increase of US$ 542.26 million (Rs.2,392
crore) in food credit was low and comparable to the increase of US$ 699.2
million (Rs.3,084 crore) in the previous year. Non-food credit registered an
increase of US$ 56.22 billion (16.9 per cent) as compared with an increase of
US$ 44.09 billion (17.5 per cent) in the corresponding period of 2005-06.
Banks' investments in shares,
bonds/debentures and commercial paper increased by 0.6 per cent during the
current financial year up to January 5, 2007 as against a decline of 14.8 per
cent in the corresponding period last year. SCBs' investments in mutual funds
also increased by US$ 471.5 million (Rs.2,080 crore) as against a decline of
US$ 1.37 billion (Rs.6,051 crore) in the corresponding period of the previous
year. The total flow of resources from SCBs to the commercial sector increased
by 16.1 per cent during the current financial year so far as compared with the
increase of 15.0 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The
year-on-year growth in total resource flow was 29.5 per cent, over and above
the growth of 27.7 per cent a year ago.
On a year-on-year basis, the growth in
money supply (M3) at 20.4 per cent on January 5, 2007 was higher than 16.0 per
cent a year ago and above the projected trajectory of 15.0 per cent indicated
in the Annual Policy Statement for 2006-07. During the current financial year
so far, M3 increased 11.9 per cent which was higher than the increase of 8.8
per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Net foreign exchange assets (NFA) of
banking sector (up to December 22, 2006) registered an increase of 14.5 per
cent as compared with 6.1 per cent in the same period last year. The annual
growth rate of NFA, as on December 22, 2006, was 21.0 per cent as against 13.2
per cent on the corresponding date of last year.
Non-Food credit during the financial
year so far (up to November 10, 2006), registered an increase of 11.4 per cent
as compared with an increase of 13.4 per cent during the same period of the
last year. The year-on-year growth rate of non-food credit was 29.6 per cent as
compared with 31.6 per cent on the corresponding date of last year.
The government has approved an
ordinance giving more flexibility to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to fix the
Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR). The central bank will now have complete
freedom in fixing the floor and ceiling levels of the Statutory Liquidity Ratio
(SLR).
The RBI hiked the CRR by 50 basis
points to 5.5 per cent in two stages on 23 December 2006 and 6 January 2007.
Bank credit expanded by 29.1 per cent
as on 8 December 2006, the growth in non-food credit being 30.4 per cent.